The Philippines could elect an independent president in 2010

(Last of three-part series)

The global economic crisis would be a game changer next year. If the country falls into a recession or extreme slowdown, there is no way the President’s coalition will stand a chance in 2010. It would be a political suicide for somebody to run for president under the President’s coalition. However, the administration could spend their way out of the crisis in order to show to the people they have managed to cushion the effects of the crisis and end the year with a decent 4.8 percent growth in GDP and probably a 5.5 percent the quarter before the elections in 2010.

This, however, will come at a price because the nation might return to a fiscal crisis because of the government’s deficit spending. But none of this will matter because it is up to the next president to handle, may it come from the administration party or from the opposition. The Filipino public must be reminded, though, that the premise for the imposition of the VAT, which was vigorously pushed by the President’s allies in Congress, is to stabilize the country’s fiscal health and to balance the budget in 2010. At the rate of how events are unfolding in these last few fiscal quarters, a balanced budget may be entirely scratched out of the equation. Congress may be partly blamed for this as they let spending let loose.

Neither can the current administration take credit for their so-called achievement of the highest economic growth in a lifetime because despite growing a little above 7 percent in GDP, a country of 90 million people requires at least 9 percent of growth in order to sustain the population. Their case that the economy was in good hands under their watch is largely contentious.

The expected spike in unemployment, reduction in real income especially among the middle class and those below poverty line will pave way for the people’s increased appetite for fresh policies in terms of taxation and government spending. At the same time, the people will be smart enough not to buy into any divisive rhetoric against the government, which would likely come from the mainstream opposition, because they know better now the harsh consequences brought by extreme political division.

This kind of political climate is ripe for any independent presidential candidate to take advantage. If he or she can make her case to the Filipino people that she can unite a weary and divided nation and has the technical skills to run the economy more efficiently where an economic growth can be achieved that can sustain the current population, that candidate may have a chance.