Friday, October 31, 2008

Lower fares expected as fuel prices drop

Pump prices drastically dropped yesterday pushing renewed calls for reduced transport fare prices in buses and jeepneys. Fortunately for commuters, they will get their wish after the All Souls weekend when transport groups and the government agreed by principle to implement it. After all, diesel, which fuels most of our public transport, dropped by five to six bucks per liter.

Despite declining pump prices in the past few weeks, yesterday’s reduction is the biggest. Petroleum products continue to slope downwards since the financial crisis, that has now engulfed the world, broke out. This trend points to falling demand in the United States but consumers there are not complaining. At least driving their SUVs would not mean they have to cut their basic cable subscriptions.

However, some feel this is merely a token effort on the part of the oil companies. In addition, the left in the House of Representatives are pushing for the Oil Deregulation Law, which was intended to promote completion in the oil industry, to be repealed and even the conservatives in the Senate are calling for added taxation to the likes of Shell, Petron, and Chevron in an attempt to unlock their books to the public.

But what does it really mean to Juan the retail store employee? For a hundred bucks per day, perhaps he will get to save at least P6 when commuting to work and back to his home. That is enough to buy coffee during his break. Something he deserves for working his ass off for the last 10 years yet not able to pay his bills on a regular basis.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Liverpool stay in top with 1-0 win over Pompey

Early this morning when I was preparing to go to work, I opened the TV to watch the latest in Wall Street but was surprised to see Barclays Premier League games on ESPN and Star Sports. I did not catch SportsCenter last night but I did check out the TV listings on ESPN’s website yesterday and found there were no BPL games on schedule.

Still, I was a bit disappointed that the Liverpool-Portsmouth game was never covered but I did see Arsenal went ahead 4-2 against Spurs after a massive Emmanuel Adebayor goal. Amazingly, when I checked the results just a few minutes ago on the web, Tottenham managed to grab a point at the Emirates as the scoreline ended 4-4. No doubt that the Houdini has really made a positive difference in that club.

Earlier, I was concerned that Liverpool might lose two points or worse will be beaten by Pompey with the match still scoreless at the half while the rest of the Big Four already hacking up a double in their respective fixtures. But Captain Marvelous Steven Gerrard made a goal 15 minutes left that proved to be the winner. That kept the Reds a full game ahead of Chelsea and 8 points top of Manchester United.

This is a good sign for Liverpool despite missing their top striker Fernando Torres. They are not burning the back of the net like the rest of the Big Four but they are getting the job done. And that is what matters. Incidentally, they will be up against the resurgent Spurs in the weekend in an interesting match up of two clubs that have so much to prove.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Gloomy consumer confidence halts market rally

The cat is out and the Federal Reserve did lower short-term interest rates by 50 basis points. It also provided a bleak view of the economy that pulled down the major stock indexes in the US. After yesterday’s record surge that saw the Dow, the NASDAQ, and the S&P 500 all rise, the news became a bit of a reality check which dampened the mood of the investment community leading to the sell-off.

The Fed is certainly very much concerned with the plunging consumer confidence that has hit its lowest level since the mid 1970s during the oil crisis. In other words, people are cutting back on spending especially on high ticket items like cars and appliances. Fears over job security because of the credit crisis make people take a second look on the items they purchase and that hurts the profit expectations of companies. Companies on the other hand, continue to slash jobs in order to keep afloat. Huge layoffs by companies, like the one by auto giant General Motors, is one of the more vivid demonstration of how the Wall Street crisis has affected Main Street.

Meanwhile, many of those jobs are fast migrating abroad like here in the Philippines. Just as China are taking over US manufacturing jobs, the Philippines have been getting many of the services jobs of American companies as we have seen the explosion of the call center industry here in the last decade. This has boosted consumer spending here especially in the urban centers where these call centers are operating. But it is interesting to see whether the slowdown in the US will have any effect to the flow of services jobs here. Many of the client pool of these call centers incidentally belong to the financial sector, which has been badly hit by the crisis like the now-bankrupt Washington Mutual.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Rafa-era Reds finally win at the Bridge

Coming into this game, I already conditioned myself that we would be lucky if Liverpool could at least snatch a point in their game against Chelsea. Odds are certainly against us especially that the it has been four years now since Rafael Benitez acrimoniously left then La Liga champions Valencia to manage England’s most decorated club, yet until Sunday he has yet to muster a win against their bitter rivals from London.

Can not blame me nor even many of Liverpool fans all over the world for being cautiously pessimistic on any idea of a win at Stamford Bridge since Chelsea themselves has not tasted defeat in their grounds in 86 games. Although, the day eventually belonged to Liverpool, defender Jamie Carragher, who received the nod as the game’s best player for keeping Nicolas Anelka less ambitious in the box than usual, was quick to downplay their title credentials saying it was still too early in the season.

I, too, believe that Liverpool, despite at the top of the BPL table after nine matches played, needs more than this win to convince most especially their supporters that they are indeed serious contenders for the league this season. What they need is to win against the middle table clubs like the Blackburns, the Portsmouths, and the Aston Villas consistently, something they have had difficulty in the last four years.

This Wednesday, Liverpool has a chance to stay three points or more clear of their closest rival as they face a Portsmouth side which drew in the weekend and just lost their manager Harry Redknapp to Tottenham. This is a good opportunity to bolster their chances as they find themselves in unfamiliar territory being chanced by the rest of the Big Four.

Selling spree Monday

The Dow fell sharply in last night’s trading shedding off another 203 points to kick off this week on a bearish mood. Despite pulling modest gains halfway into the session, another late rally southward, which has been eminent for weeks now, proved to be another pivotal setback for equities.

Earlier, Asian and European shares got hammered with even Japan’s Nikkei falling to its 26-year low. There is even talk that the US might follow the Japanese experience when it suffered a long recession after their real estate bubble burst in the late 80s. Almost the same premise now hounds the US with the housing collapse blamed as the culprit for their current woes.

The Phisix fell over 12 percent in yesterday’s session and trading was even stopped momentarily for 15 minutes due to the massive sell-off shades of what happened in Moscow weeks ago when their stock exchange went on a free fall. A lot of wealth has already been lost in the PSE in this past few weeks. Consumer demand in this country is expected to slow down and not even the holidays could make people spend in the level they used to.

Despite the peso’s fall against the dollar, it is not yet ‘all bets are off’ in terms of positive effect to the economy especially for the beneficiaries of remittances. Families of OFWs are likely to hoard their dollars anyway and this continued slow consumer spending would just keep the real economy dampened. This is a ripe scenario for a properties bubble especially here in Manila. Banks that are highly exposed to the property sector would feel the pinch which would lead to a possible credit crunch in the financial system. On the surface, the crisis has barely affected our everyday lives, but the signs are coming and their coming fast.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Europe and Asia meet as the crisis deepens

The weekend saw the conclusion of the biggest global summit that convened yet so far supposedly aimed to address the rapid spread of the financial crisis that originally broke out during the US housing meltdown just a few week ago. The summit brought nations from Europe and Asia and the event was held in the Chinese capital of Beijing. Many believe that the venue was just fitting since China is seen as the country with the best ability to shrug off the contagion that has already taken a number of countries as victims.

If there was something that came out of the summit, it was the adoption by the 45 participating heads of state of the Beijing Declaration which called for sustainable development by strengthening collaboration on environmental issues and the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. As expected, a summit as huge as this did nothing to provide specific solutions to the pressing effects of the financial tsunami that could well likely turn into a worldwide recession.

Last week, Pakistan and Argentina became the latest countries that sought for either international assistance or employed drastic internal policies. Pakistan has already sent signals that it would be needing financial bailout from the International Monetary Fund and Argentina’s national government has nationalized their pension system in order to salvage their declining to ability to pay their financial obligations abroad.

Here at home, the Phisix continues to get battered and has fallen below the psychological 2,000-points mark. The peso is steadily weakening against the greenback which now stands at around 48.90 per dollar. A likely BSP intervention in the foreign exchange market could be in the offing once it slides further to 50 a dollar.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Slowdown in the real economy fuels the R word

The quest for the bottom in the markets continues after the Dow lost big again. Yesterday, stocks got pummeled by over 400 points despite recovering a quarter of that value at the end of today’s trading. Despite seeing credit markets beginning to thaw with constant government infusion to improve liquidity, this time it is the real economy that is doing the beating on equities.

Negative earnings from various companies dampened investor confidence and reinforced the belief that America is indeed headed for the inevitable – recession. What is interesting is that the gloomy earnings outlook goes across the board; from transports, pharmaceuticals, and technology, in addition to the already battered financials and energy sectors.

Here at home, workers at expected to brace a holiday season possibly without their traditional Christmas bonuses. Fears that many Filipino overseas workers might get laid off in their jobs abroad is getting more real. This puts pressure to our foreign reserves as remittances are expected to drop. Government also needs to tackle a new set of safety net measures in order to provide livelihood opportunities to the workers who will be going back home.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Polls looking blue as election nears

Recent polls show that Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is ahead by 9 points against Republican John McCain. This is certainly not what the GOP is expecting after recent public outrage against Obama’s “spread the wealth” economic plan. On the other hand, this is a welcome development for the Obama campaign with barely less than two weeks to go before America cast their ballots.

Just as when the McCain camp finally found a consistent message by going after Obama’s left-leaning ideologies, the recent numbers is yet another blow to a campaign that has been outspent and outplayed. Things are not looking good either for McCain in the crucial battleground states such as Florida, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and Missouri. George W. Bush carried all of these states in 2004 but right now it has either shifted to the Democrat’s favor or too close to call. McCain’s running-mate Gov. Sarah Palin has not been successful either in getting that all-important independent and women voters.

For Obama, there is really nothing left to do but avoid making a mistake in the final days of the campaign and he should hope nothing drastic happens that would take away people’s attention out of the economy and back to national security, which has been the Republican’s mantra for the past 8 years. If election were held today, Obama would win the presidency and his supporters would surely want to keep it that way.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Economic forum

The White House announced that it will sponsor a worldwide economic forum wherein the main agenda will be the current financial crisis. It will be held in November this year and by that time America has already elected either Barack Obama or John McCain. President George W. Bush, who is serving his last few weeks in office, is expected to preside the forum that will be participated by other 19 nations.

What is not certain, though, is whether the president-elect will join the forum. The new chief executive, who will officially assume office by January next year is faced with the gargantuan task of turning the economy around. Should he make it to the forum, representatives from other attending nations will surely be interested to work with the new president-elect because it is widely believed that America’s ability of respond to the crisis is the key to avert what seemingly now a global economic meltdown.

Thailand is reviving the idea of creating a pan-ASEAN fund that aims to help member nations should a systemic financial crisis hit again. After the 1997 crisis, there was a plan to create a fund among ASEAN economies which would pool a significant amount of foreign reserves. However, this never materialized as the situation eventually improved.

There has been a lack of urgency among ASEAN economies, the Philippines included, in making a concerted effort in tackling this crisis, unlike what the Europeans are currently doing. We are expected to know better because of our bitter experience 11 years ago but, ironically, what we are seeing are isolated calls for cooperation and individual action by the region’s central banks.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Hot start

Wall Street roared in the opening day of this week’s trading gaining over 400 points. Positive news from Asian and European markets earlier in the day boosted investor confidence. This should be a nice follow-up to last week’s 4.8 percent overall gain.

Bargain hunting seems to be the buzzword of the day as investors continue to scramble for undervalued shares. Reaction from investment guru Warren Buffett about ‘be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful’ certainly made others take another look at equities. After all, the Oracle from Omaha made millions from making the same unorthodox decisions especially during a bear market.

The weekend also saw Dutch and South Korean governments infuse public money to salvage their respective flagging financial sector. Here at home, investment bank Merrill Lynch predicts the Monetary Board of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will cut overnight lending rates by 25 basis points when it meets at the end of the month. The BSP has tightened borrowing rates since June when inflation numbers hit staggering levels this year.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Joe the Plumber

Everything seems to be going fine for Democrat presidential nominee Barack Obama. He is up in all nationwide opinion polls and he is slamming his Republican rival John McCain in virtually all battleground states. Then suddenly he bumped into an ordinary plumber from Ohio, a meeting that both men wished never happened.

That plumber turned out to be Samuel Joe Wurzelbacher, now popularly known as ‘Joe the Plumber’. While Obama was doing his routine house-to-house visit in suburban Ohio, Joe the Plumber took the chance and asked the Democrat hopeful whether he will be taxed more under the latter’s proposed tax plan should he become president. Obama’s ‘spread the wealth’ response not only put his tax plan under scrutiny, but his ability to steer the country out of recession.

McCain called the Obama tax plan as socialism and Obama supporters fired back that the current Republican administration’s bailout efforts in the financial system is the highest form of socialism. However, the Joe the Plumber saga has definitely provided the McCain campaign a lifeline less than three weeks to go before election day.

In the last presidential elections in 2004 here in the Philippines, taxes were never a huge debating issue between incumbent President Arroyo and opposition standard bearer the late Fernando Poe Joe Jr. In the upcoming 2010 polls, though, taxes are expected to become a factor as the country moves towards a slowdown and possibly a recession. With steady high inflation and unemployment crippling the economy due to rapid population growth and the global financial crisis, the Filipino middle class will surely be interested how the presidential candidates plan to make their every peso worth.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Irrational

In another twist in the markets this week, the Dow rose to 401 points bucking negative economic news that hounded Wall Street investors during trading day. This came after the industrials lost 733 points the previous day. In this kind of market environment, no one seem to have the answers. Perhaps one can suspect that the only rational explanation for the rise is bargain hunting.

But does that mean that the market has already seen the bottom? Many of the so-called pundits are skeptical with the notion that the markets has reached the abyss and there is no way to go but up. With how the markets are behaving lately, what lies ahead looks even more daunting since any form of logic that was left has clearly been thrown out of the window.

As expected, the local markets followed Wall Street’s lead yesterday with the Phisix slipping to its 18-month low. The peso also breached the P48 to a dollar mark as dollar holders are keeping their greenback in hopes for a better opportunity to sell. A weakening peso holds off any significant reduction in prices of petroleum products here in the Philippines.

I believe any move by the Bangko Sentral to control inflation through monetary measures like increasing interest rates is absolutely counterproductive because it will not address the problem. On the political front, Congress must anticipate a recession next year and should allocate enough funding in anticipation for any pressure to the financial system.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Debating for the future

Just hours before the two US presidential hopefuls square off for their third and final debate, Wall Street suffered one of its worst losses in a single trading day, with the Dow falling 733 points, most coming in the final hour of trading. After Monday’s record breaking rebound, today’s losses reminded people that the economy continues to be the main focal point of this year’s elections.

Democratic nominee Barack Obama currently enjoys a lead in nationwide opinion polls and is ahead in many of the key battleground states. In this debate, the American public will surely be hungry for specifics from the two candidates on how they plan to solve this crisis and avert a 1930s Great Depression-like meltdown.

Four years ago, opposition presidential candidate the late Fernando Poe Jr. backed out from joining any debates. President Arroyo, sensing it was no use being on those debates without her closest rival anyway, decided not to participate as well.

I believe people have the right to see whoever plans to occupy the highest office in the land to at least participate in these healthy exchanges so that they would have a better understanding of the people who would lead them. Nobody said a president has to be a rocket scientist but at least someone who can show that he or she is capable of handling the pressure of a debate.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Back to earth

After the Dow Jones Industrial average reeled and ended with its worst beating in a single week, investors sighed in relief with the composite rebounded for over 900 points on Monday. For the first time in a long while, people got positive news out of Wall Street.

Central banks all over the world coordinated their actions never seen before and the investment community saw it as sign that the economies are starting to recognize the scale of this crisis. For a moment, everyone taught it was the end of the rabbit hole. It seems now that they are mistaken.

The Dow went back to earth again last night as it ended in negative territory although not as brutal as last week’s numbers. The idea that the United States can not avoid a recession is now starting to sync in among the public. The Bush administration is offering the public solutions almost on a daily basis and people are starting to ask what lies ahead after government will run out of tricks.
The recently approved $700 billion bailout package is now in action but concrete results are yet to be seen. Anyway, the government already made it known that the effects of the bailout would take time to kick in.

The Philippine Stock Exchange rose substantially following the lead of other emerging markets on Monday but expected to stay on the sidelines now the US markets are starting to send mixed signals once again. Still, there has been limited coverage of the global financial crisis in the local mainstream media. Congress will be back in session soon and it is interesting how would our elected representatives will respond to this crisis in the midst of another impeachment attempt against President Arroyo.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Darkness in the horizon

Fear and panic is now gripping the world as the financial crisis that originated in America is now felt all over the world. As it looks, the end is yet nowhere in sight.

Yesterday, the markets opened in New York in positive territory after traders received encouraging piece of news from the federal government. But it did not last long as the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the trading session down by over 500 points. That, after the benchmark fell by over 300 points the day before and a week after it got pummeled by nearly 800 points in its worst single-day loss ever.

The jury is still out on how this crisis will affect the Philippine economy. Right now, signal bells are starting to ring such as the troubles of PhilamLife, the country’s largest insurer. Remember, that PhilamLife has ties with the American International Group (AIG), which a couple of weeks ago shocked the world with their impending bankruptcy that sparked a myriad of events that lead to our current situation.

Shades of the 1930s-style Great Depression are beginning to creep in from the horizon and no wonder many are predicting things will even get worse before it gets better.